Ukraine targets Iranian ships in Caspian Sea

Iranian-designed drones have caused significant trouble for Ukrainian forces battling Russian troops, as Moscow took Tehran’s technology and expanded its production. These unmanned weapons have been deployed in large numbers against Kyiv. From Ukraine’s perspective, this makes Iran an indirect combatant. That means Iranian cargo ships heading to Russia are now considered valid military targets.

That scenario played out this weekend in the Caspian Sea, and Tehran is not pleased. Ukraine’s main domestic intelligence agency, the SBU, said drones hit a Russian missile boat called the Molnyia, along with two cargo ships. The agency stated these vessels “were under international sanctions and were used to transport military cargo between Iran and Russia.”

President Volodymyr Zelenskyy confirmed the operation in a post on Telegram, noting that Ukraine had “achieved very strong results with long range strikes in the Caspian Sea.” The description points to two specific cargo ships, the Port Olya 2 and the Begey, both of which are under international sanctions due to the war. It remains unclear exactly what the vessels were transporting at the time of the strike.

Tehran Vows Retaliation

Iranian authorities reacted angrily to the ship attack, reporting that one sailor was killed and vowing retaliation. Ukraine’s top diplomat in Tehran was summoned to the Foreign Ministry in protest. “Zelenskyy has attacked an Iranian commercial vessel, killing a sailor,” Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said in a post on X.

Araqchi called the incident “a blatant United Nations Charter violation done at Israel’s behest to drag Europe into its war.” Ebrahim Azizi, who heads the national security committee in Iran’s parliament, said in another post that Kyiv will soon learn that Tehran “leaves no action unanswered.” The Kremlin also weighed in, with spokesman Dmitry Peskov telling reporters that the Ukrainian attack should be viewed as an attack on Iran itself.

Limits on Iranian Power

Despite the angry rhetoric, it is unclear to what extent Iran would be able to retaliate against Ukraine directly. “Tehran is clearly angry, but it has very limited ability to project military power against Ukraine,” said Saeid Golkar, an expert on Iran’s military at the University of Tennessee at Chattanooga.

If Iran decides to respond, Golkar predicted it would likely be through indirect means such as cyber operations, intelligence activity, or support for Russian operations. “It’s not necessarily in Iran’s best interest to bring Ukraine into this conflict, and I don’t think it’s in Russia’s either,” said Nicole Grajewski, a Russia-Iran expert at Sciences Po in France.